By Stanley Ngugi, August 7th, 2025
The tension of a single coin flip versus the predictability of the law of large numbers.
Think about a single coin flip. The tension is palpable. It's a high-stakes, 50/50 moment that feels monumental. But what happens when you flip that coin 100 times? The anxiety fades. The outcome of each individual flip becomes less important as the collective result—roughly 50 heads and 50 tails—becomes a predictable certainty. This is the law of large numbers at play.
We often live our lives fixated on a single "coin flip." We get so caught up in one person, one job, or one opportunity that we treat it as a unique, irreplaceable event. But what if we applied the law of large numbers to our lives? If we looked at the world with its billions of people and countless opportunities, we would see that beauty, success, and fulfillment are not scarce—they are abundant.
The paradox is that we live in a world of abundance, yet we operate with a mindset of scarcity.
Our tendency to fixate on a single thing isn't an accident; it's deeply ingrained in our psychology. This mindset is driven by several powerful forces:
Adopting an abundance mindset doesn't mean you should become a non-committal person who never settles down. Instead, it's about shifting the foundation of your commitment.
There is a world of difference between committing out of scarcity and committing out of abundance.
Commitment from Scarcity is born from fear. It whispers, "I have to hold on because this is the only good thing I'll ever find." This mindset often leads to insecurity, jealousy, and the kind of "worship" that places immense pressure on a partner or a career.
Commitment from Abundance is born from choice. It confidently says, "I'm choosing this person or this path because I genuinely want to. I know there are other good options in the world, but I am making an intentional decision to dedicate my energy and time here."
This approach doesn't diminish your commitment; it makes it stronger. Your loyalty becomes an active, joyful choice rather than a desperate, fearful clinging.
By reframing our perspective, we can transform our relationships, our careers, and even our everyday lives.
By recognizing the law of large numbers in our own lives, we can move from a place of anxiety and desperate clinging to one of gratitude, secure commitment, and confident choice. The world is full of abundance, and a shift in our mindset can open our eyes to all of it.